Matthew A Winkler
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suffers the same unfavorable public opinion enveloping prime ministers around the globe. But he can smile on U.S. President Joe Biden for reminding Canadian voters that a political party delivering prosperity enhanced by diversity, equity and inclusion still is what people want.
When Biden informed the American public that the fate of the world and the best-performing US economy since the 1960s are more important than his bid for a second term — underlining his uncontested endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him — he put his party and country first.
When he then completed negotiations for the largest prisoner exchange since the Cold War, not with a little help from Harris, the 46th president belied the media narrative of an 81-year-old’s alleged infirmity guaranteeing Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Biden’s chosen successor, the former California senator, attorney general and public prosecutor, who was born to a Black Jamaican father and Indian mother, turned her detractors’ DEI epithet into a joyous accolade via multiple, unprecedented Zoom calls with White Women, Black Women, White Dudes, Black Men and even Deadheads for Kamala.
The diversity of supporters also raised a record amount of money in record time in any presidential campaign.
The invigorated Democratic Party led by Harris should provide some solace to Trudeau and his Liberal Party, which for the first time in Canada’s history ushered in the No. 1 economy among the Group of Seven developed nations over the past eight years (excluding the U.S.), according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Trudeau, like Biden and the Democrats in 2020, showed no intention of going back to the anemic neoliberalism that left too many people behind. Running third in the polls in 2015, Trudeau defied political orthodoxy by declaring his intention to “invest” in Canada when increased government spending was taboo. The incumbent party said he wasn’t “ready.” He proved otherwise almost at once.
Trudeau created the first cabinet of any Canadian prime minister that continues to be 50% women. His reconciliation agenda with Canada’s indigenous communities, consulting with First Nations, Inuit and Métis leaders, has enough moral force to prevent its repeal by any future government.
His legalization of cannabis similarly is secure for no other reason than future governments will be addicted to its revenues and surfeit of jobs. For the first time, there are more women than men on the Supreme Court because Trudeau made six consecutive appointments.
Trudeau is the first prime minister to make Senate appointments non-partisan and his carbon tax, early learning and child-care policies are the templates for Canada’s future well-being. Trudeau managed the COVID-19 pandemic better than most of his peers.
All of which makes the DEI of Trudeau and Harris entirely about the pursuit of excellence. Anyone watch the Olympics lately? Trudeau’s DEI commitments underline the resurgent economy that in no small way was strengthened by record immigration and is the opposite of Trump’s xenophobia, inconveniently shared by some of his European counterparts.
Canada’s population of 41 million has expanded 1.5% annually since 2015, exceeding every G7 country. The 3.2% population increase in 2023 was the most since 1957 at the height of the post-World War II baby boom, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. As my fellow Bloomberg Opinion columnist Tyler Cowen wrote earlier this year, Canada’s “liberal policies may be causing tension now, but in the long run they will make it stronger.”
Trudeau was alone amid the Anglo-American tide of Brexit and Trumplandia. Unlike his predecessors, he presided over the narrowing growth gap between the U.S. and Canada. Since he took office in 2015, Canada’s gross domestic product increased at an annualized rate of 4.1%, only 1.1 percentage point less than the U.S. and greater than the rest of the G7, including No. 3 Germany by half a percentage point, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Until Trudeau’s election in 2015, Canada was expanding 0.5 percentage point slower than the U.S. during the prior decade.
With Trudeau at the helm, Canada became an international trade powerhouse, boosting exports by 45% since 2015 to $593 billion in 2023, accounting for 27% of Canada’s GDP, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. During the period, imports increased 3.6% annually, meaning Canada sold goods and services to the world faster than it bought. That’s a reversal from the prior 15 years, when Canada bought more than it sold.
Nothing confirms the ascendancy of Trudeau’s premiership better than Canada’s dollar, which is among just six of the 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg to hold its value or strengthen between the end of 2015 and last month when the euro, Australian dollar and Japanese yen depreciated 0.34%, 10.2% and 19.8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
And if the bond market is the canary in the world coal mine, Canada’s economy remains the avatar of health with its government debt securities appreciating 8%, or 0.7 percentage point more than the world Treasury benchmark on a yearly basis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Canada’s superior performance has a lot to do with the increasing diversity of corporate Canada. When Trudeau became prime minister, 37% of the 100 largest Canadian companies by market value were financial firms and 18% were energy. The same groups shrank to 30.7% and 17.6% since then while industrial and technology each increased almost six percentage points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Technology got a boost under Trudeau, who told business leaders in 2019: “Access to talent obviously comes from immigration and it comes from training young and educating Canadians right.” While many countries, including the US, are “closing themselves off more to immigration,” Canada remains open. Sure enough, total hours worked in professional scientific and technical services increased 41% since 2015, the most among 18 industries.
Having done more than any of his predecessors to make Canada a 21st century leader, Trudeau can see across the border that Biden’s policies paved the way for the Harris juggernaut. If the Democratic Party’s unity is any indication, Trudeau and his Liberal Party aren’t finished yet either.
(Matthew A Winkler, editor in chief emeritus of Bloomberg News, writes about markets.)The invigorated Democratic Party in the US should provide some solace to Canada’s prime minister and his Liberal Party
