A year ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood before the UN General Assembly with a map depicting the "New Middle East”.
It presented a vision of regional transformation anchored on the Abraham Accords, through which neighbouring Arab states have been working to normalise relations with Israel.
But instead of a new regional order achieved through diplomacy and trade, the past year has instead witnessed a devastating Israeli campaign of war and genocide.
Israel’s year-long offensive on multiple fronts has shattered the region’s tentative progress towards peace. The Middle East’s relative stability at the start of this decade has been decimated by Israel’s genocidal onslaught in Gaza, aerial bombardments in Syria and Yemen, and now the ground invasion of Lebanon.
In 2003, neocon ideologues envisioned Iraq as a democratic beacon that would spread change throughout a new Middle East.
Two decades later, that transformation is happening at the hands of an ethnocratic, extremist settler state, through genocide, invasion and mass expulsion.
Israel has expanded the boundaries of what is both possible and tolerated in regional armed conflicts, through routine violations of international humanitarian law and by testing how far Arab states can be pushed without major escalation.
Western double standards
The genocide in Gaza, which has rendered the territory largely uninhabitable, has been met with calls from regional governments for ceasefire and de-escalation. Yet, with the exception of non-state armed groups, Arab countries have been mostly passive actors.
Former "red lines” - such as the mass displacement of Palestinians, or targeted killings in hospitals and schools - no longer muster a significant response.
But the year-long war in Gaza has indeed heralded the development of a "new Middle East” in terms of the region’s relations with Western countries, as the double standards of American and European diplomats have been on full display.
As confidence in Western leadership wanes, the region has increasingly looked to China to broker political agreements, and as a partner for technological advancement and rebuilding efforts.
In Netanyahu’s revised map of the Middle East, occupied Palestine was conspicuous by its absence. The past year has demonstrated the folly of this warped vision.
Central to the Israeli vision of a new region was the potential for normalisation with Saudi Arabia. But Palestine remains an obstacle to this goal, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently vowing that his country will never normalise relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is established, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Crucially, the crown prince was reportedly influenced on this issue by the popular demands of young Saudis, which reflects a wider regional trend of youth becoming engaged on Palestine for the first time because of their exposure to the year-long genocide.
In this sense, the war on Gaza has indeed reshaped the region, fostering a stronger sense of unity across the "Arab street” in opposition to Israeli occupation and ethnic cleansing. But for this renewed popular consciousness to spur lasting change, Arab states must reclaim their agency and momentum in reshaping the future of the region, refusing to allow a settler-colonial outpost and its imperial backers to dictate the course of events.
Only by leading decisively can they ensure a just and sovereign future for Palestine and the wider Middle East.
(Sansom Milton is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies in Doha)