A whole year has passed since the Israeli war on Gaza, during which Israel has crossed all humanitarian, political and military lines.
The war will end one way or another at some point. Post-war Jordan will face a major dilemma in terms of its approach to the future relationship with Israel. Official Jordan used a justification that seemed convincing in the past in the context of it promoting the signing of a peace treaty with Israel to its citizens.
This justification was that signing the treaty forced Israel to recognise the Jordanian state and the Jordanian borders, which would kill the notion of an alternative homeland, which practically means emptying the Palestinian land of its population and claiming the existence of a Palestinian state in Jordan rather than on Palestinian soil. Jordan even insisted on including an explicit text in the treaty against any attempt at mass displacement of the population.
In addition, after Netanyahu and the extreme right came to power, the official Jordanian position was that Israel’s stubborn position on the peace process was not the end of the road, and that Netanyahu would leave power at some point, and that Jordan should wait until a more flexible and balanced Israeli prime minister comes to power, allowing for the resumption of talks with Israel about ways to end the Occupation and establish a Palestinian State.
The Israeli war on Gaza has weakened these two justifications. It has become clear that one of Israel’s main goals of the war is to get rid of as many Palestinians as possible in Gaza, either by directly killing them or by making Gaza an uninhabitable place after Israel destroyed all the needs of life in the Strip, including road, electricity and water networks, schools, hospitals and places of worship. Moreover, Israeli settlers in the West Bank continue to attack Palestinian population centres, with the support of the Israeli army, in blatant attempts to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians.
The second argument, which was the hope for an Israeli prime minister with whom Jordan could reach an understanding regarding the establishment of a Palestinian State coming to power, has also collapsed, especially after the Israeli Knesset passed a law last July, with the approval of all major Israeli parties, including the opposition, against the establishment of a Palestinian State.
Hence, Jordan faces a real dilemma in the post-war period. Resuming economic and security cooperation with Israel will expose the government to a direct confrontation with an angry and rejecting public opinion and will give Israel the impression that Jordan is not serious in its opposition to Israeli policies. However, continuing with the current Jordanian position, which is ahead of other Arab countries in terms of its harsh criticism of Israel, will expose it to serious pressure from the US and others.