Syed Nasir Hassan
Turkiye’s relations with the West have always been on tightropes as the country under the leadership of President Recep Erdogan was trying to find its identity in Eurasia. It needed security and economic assurances from the West but limelight in the East as the leading Muslim nation. However, post 7 October 2023 Ankara seems to have been seeking a path to secure its position in eastern alliances, into the cradles of geo-political giants Russia and China.
Turkiye is among the few Muslim countries that have had good working relations with Israel for a long time. It is a country which for a long time has been caught up between populism, western liberalism, Muslim world protagonists and geopolitical complexities due to its location in Eurasia.
Recently, Turkiye has shown willingness to be part of BRICS, a second plea for inclusion in Sino-Russian forums. The first was made a few months ago, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) annual meet-up. Ankara became the first NATO ally to bid for BRICS and the bloc is expected to assess the request in its October summit in Russia.
Ankara’s inclusion into the EU has long been stalled. In 1987 it applied for membership into what was then the European Economic Community and, in 1999, it was declared eligible to join the EU. However, no significant progress has been made since.
In 2023, the European Parliament adopted a resolution saying that it cannot resume Ankara’s accession process unless Turkiye changes course. Out of frustration Erdogan threatened to break away from the EU.
Mending strained ties
Over the past few years we have seen Turkiye take steps to mend strained historic ties with Egypt, Saudi and Iran. This after it realised that it needs to open up its diplomatic options with the rest of the world.
On the other hand, the West and the EU cannot afford to lose Ankara amid the war between Russia and Ukraine and Europe’s growing energy needs. In 2023, Turkiye became the EU’s 5th largest trade partner, representing 4.1 per cent of the EU’s total trade in goods with the world. While Russian exports are under sanctions, Turkiye remains a key source of gas and energy. Similarly, the geographical relevance of Ankara cannot be avoided. The country is a geographical junction between continents; where East meets West. Any Turkish leanings towards East (Russia and China) can be a geopolitical setback for the West and a fulfillment of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the New Silk Road.
Meanwhile, the Turkish role in NATO remains crucial; as an allied country near the doorstep of Russia and China. Ankara joined NATO in 1952, just three years after the bloc was formed; promising firm support to western ambitions and the transatlantic alliance. However, its recent willingness to shift its priorities may make Ankara an unreliable ally.
Despite NATO and western sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, Ankara continues to establish defence ties with Moscow. The recent purchase of Moscow’s S-400 defence system remains one such instance. Contrarily, it is also seeking to buy F-16 jets from the US. Both countries recently finalised a deal for 40 F-16 jets. The deal had already been delayed for years.
BRICS would significantly jeopardise Ankara’s current role in NATO and it could lose its membership in the transatlantic alliance, as Turkiye would slide from being an ally to a threat for NATO.
Diversifying rivalries
A shift from NATO would diminish the already bleak chances of its inclusion in the EU and push it into a tight spot on the issue of Kurdish separatism as the West may then support separatist groups.
Inclusion in BRICS may see Ankara reap some economic benefit but it cannot give it security assurances similar to those of NATO. Ankara would have to bear the significant strategic and geo-political cost of choosing a bloc whose sole purpose remains challenging the West through establishing close economic ties and de-dollarisation.
Ankara’s historic choices have now taken root and have made it interdependent on the West. Irrespective of how much Erdogan portrays himself as a tough man, the country remains interlinked with the West. Ankara’s anti-West rhetoric may ensure its entry into eastern blocs but it cannot secure its strategic and military needs.
BRICS, like other Sino-Russian led forums, remains loosely controlled alliances with structural and reliability issues. It is quite possible that in pursuit of diversifying alliances, Ankara may end up diversifying rivalries. Even if Ankara doesn’t join the group, its efforts to do so may have tainted it as an unreliable ally.
(Syed Nasir Hassan is a researcher based in Islamabad, Pakistan, with experience of working with governmental and non-governmental institutes on strategic and policy related issues.)