As the Ukraine war, launched by the imperialist invasion by Russian despot Vladimir Putin, passed its 1,000-day mark this month, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s troops are newly empowered by the Biden administration to use long-range ATACMS missiles to attack targets in Russia, which they did. And Moscow responded by launching its own new mid-range ballistic missile.
Biden is also sending antipersonnel mines to Ukraine, marking a couple significant shifts in strategy in his waning weeks at the helm.
What everyone knows is that this late flurry of aid for Kyiv’s defenses may soon change. Donald Trump, with his dangerous America First isolationism, wants out of foreign wars and could leave Ukraine to be mauled and consumed by the Russian bear. He’s said that he intends to end the war “in one day,” which seems to include the idea of significant and unacceptable concessions to Russia and Putin, a strongman whose style Trump has often seemed to admire.
Of course, this terrible war should not be prolonged. Even Zelenskyy expressed some optimism that Trump might be able to help end the war sooner, to some extent due to his existing credibility in the Kremlin. There’s a world here where the clarity of Trump’s non-commitment to both Ukraine and the global Western security apparatus and alliances like NATO at least pushes European allies to step up and help broker an end to the conflict that does not constitute a Russian victory.
This, however, is only possible if Russia comes to feel that this victory is not possible, or at least comes at too extravagant a cost. That means that Ukraine needs to continue to have the tools not just to defend itself but to strike back, as it has begun doing with the long-range missiles.
For its part, Russia has suffered estimated military casualties, including killed and wounded, in excess of 700,000, destroyed its military readiness, is in the midst of uncontrolled inflation and seems destined to at best have an incredibly Pyrrhic victory. Now, it will suffer heavier casualties and infrastructural damage on its own soil from Ukraine’s latest weapons.
This doesn’t mean that Ukraine has the upper hand, per se, but it does mean that this is a grinding stalemate that no one really wants to continue. Russia has been increasingly desperate for an edge, now allowing thousands of North Korean troops to join the fray, committed to saving face to protect the aspirations and public image of its despotic leader. But the tides can turn quickly if Ukraine’s means to defend itself begin drying up.
So let the Biden administration shore that up for now, and we hope that Trump’s lean towards a Russia-favoring resolution is tempered in the months until he takes office.
History and common sense point to a series of escalating consequences if an aggressive and expansionist Russia is allowed to win this war outright in the ways it had initially set out to do — seizing large swaths of territory and rewiring the social and political fabric of the land. Putin will not be appeased, or satisfied with this meal at Ukraine’s expense. He’ll always want more, which is why he must be stopped.
