Agencies
The United States continues to face risks from underlying inflation despite recent progress in stabilizing prices, two senior Federal Reserve officials said Friday, with one indicating support for just one interest rate cut over the next two rate decisions.
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress to keep both inflation and unemployment under control, and recently began rolling back high interest rates in order to better support the labor market.
After two rate cuts since September totaling three quarters of a percentage-point, the Fed’s benchmark lending rate now sits between 4.50 and 4.75 percent.
At least one policymaker on the Fed’s rate-setting committee has suggested cautious support for a quarter-point rate cut later this month, while others have maintained a wait-and-see approach, refusing to show their hand ahead of time.
“I continue to see greater risks to the price stability side of our mandate, especially when the labor market continues to be near full employment,” Fed governor Michelle Bowman told a virtual event hosted by the Missouri Bankers Association.
“I think we’re still seeing that the US economy is strong,” added Bowman, a permanent voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee.
“But core inflation continues to be elevated,” she said, referring to the underlying measure of inflation which strips out volatile food and energy costs. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge ticked up slightly in October to 2.3 percent, slightly above the Fed’s long-term target of two percent.
But the so-called core inflation figure remained stubbornly high at 2.8 percent, indicating that underlying price pressures remain.
“In my view, upside risks to inflation remain prominent due to possible disruptions in supply chains from labor strikes and from geopolitical tensions that we’re seeing more frequently around the world,” Bowman said.
She added that “increased trade tensions and expansionary government spending,” were also putting pressure on prices, and that fresh inflation data published next week would help support her decision at the rate decision on December 17 and 18.
Speaking in Cleveland, Ohio, later on Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said resilient growth, a healthy labor market, and elevated inflation suggested it “remains appropriate to maintain a modestly restrictive stance for monetary policy for some time.”
Her comments indicate a cautious approach to rate cuts, underscoring the division of opinions about the best path forward among members of Fed’s rate-setting committee.
Hammack, who has a vote on the Fed’s rate decision later this month, added that the bank “may not be too far from a neutral setting today,” referring to the short-term rate that ensures both full employment and stable prices.
“As of yesterday, financial markets appear to be pricing in about one reduction in the Fed funds target range between now and the end of January and only a few cumulative reductions by the end of 2025,” she said, referring to the bank’s key lending rate.
“This path is consistent with my current expectation for the funds rate,” she continued, adding that her ultimate decision on whether or not to support rate cuts would be determined by incoming data.
Financial markets are pricing in a probability of around 85 percent that the Fed will vote to cut by a quarter point this month, instead of remaining on pause, according to data from CME Group.
