Agencies
Britain’s economy contracted for a second consecutive month in October ahead of the government’s inaugural budget, marking the first back-to-back declines in output since the COVID-19 pandemic and posing a challenge for new Treasury chief Rachel Reeves.
GDP contracted by 0.1% month-over-month in October, as it did in September, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
It was the first consecutive drop in monthly GDP – which is volatile and prone to revision since March and April 2020, when Britain enforced its first coronavirus lockdown. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a monthly expansion of 0.1%.
The ONS said there was “mixed” anecdotal evidence from companies that turnover had been affected by companies waiting for the budget statement, which imposed large tax rises on businesses. Others brought forward activity.
The services sector flatlined, while output in the manufacturing and construction industries declined in October’s data, which measured the economy in the weeks before Reeves’ budget statement on Oct. 30.
Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer – who made stronger economic growth the centrepiece of the Labour Party’s election campaign this year – had warned that the budget would include painful tax increases.
Friday’s data adds to a run of worse-than-expected figures for Britain’s economy, with business surveys and retail sales readings also falling flat.
“While the figures this month are disappointing, we have put in place policies to deliver long-term economic growth,” Reeves said in a statement.Most forecasters think the budget’s boost to public investment and spending will yield faster economic growth in 2025, although business groups say employers will struggle with higher social security contributions.
Confidence among consumers rose modestly in December, in a survey published on Friday, offering Reeves a crumb of comfort after a torrent of glum business surveys.
The S&P Global PMI report showed the first contraction in private sector activity in November in over a year.
Sterling fell by more than a third of a cent against the U.S. dollar after the GDP data before recovering partially. Investors continued to price in around three quarter-point cuts in BoE interest rates by the end of next year.
