The global fight against climate change could face a grave threat with the election of Donald Trump whose rhetoric suggests he will make a sharp pivot towards fossil fuel dominance, the Al-Attiyah Foundation writes in its latest Special Report titled Trump 2.0: Implications for Energy, Environment, and Trade.
In an interview with Fox News in the build up to the November presidential election, Trump explained his plans for United States fossil-fuel production if he wins, saying: “We are going to – I used this expression, now everyone else is using it so I hate to use it, but – drill, baby, drill.
Despite such strident remarks, Mr. Trump’s zeal to amp up oil production and repeal the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the landmark climate law that is pouring more than $390 billion into electric vehicles, batteries and other clean energy technology, will quickly face a political test.
A cornerstone of the outgoing President Joe Biden’s climate policy, the IRA has already attracted over $200 billion in clean energy investments since its enactment. Although a complete repeal of the IRA is unlikely due to bipartisan support, as much as 30% of its climate funding could be at risk. Electric vehicle (EV) tax credits, valued at $12 billion, are particularly vulnerable, potentially undermining the rapid growth of the U.S. EV market.
Meanwhile, China leads globally, with more than 50% of its newly registered cars being EVs or plug-in hybrids—twice the global average. Trump’s proposed rollbacks could leave the U.S. trailing in this critical sector, further delaying domestic progress toward reducing emissions.
In parallel, Trump’s administration is expected to champion fossil fuel-aligned technologies, such as carbon capture and “blue” hydrogen, which could sustain jobs.
While these measures may boost traditional energy sectors, they risk slowing advancements in renewable energy infrastructure and grid modernisation. The IRA’s technology-neutral tax credits, extended until 2032, have been a driving force behind renewable energy projects, but Trump’s policies may shift focus to emissions mitigation tied to fossil fuels, aligning with his “energy dominance” strategy.
On the global stage, Trump’s energy agenda could deepen geopolitical tensions. Proposed tariffs on clean energy imports, alongside his confrontational trade stance with China, might disrupt supply chains and elevate costs for key energy technologies.
During his previous term, tariffs on Chinese solar panels reached 25%, inflating domestic production costs and slowing clean technology deployment. Similarly, his withdrawal from international climate agreements and easing of environmental regulations could strain collaborations with allies and impact global efforts to mitigate climate change.
During his campaign, Trump extolled the United States’ energy resources saying they have “more energy — we have more liquid gold, as I call it, under our feet than Saudi Arabia, than Russia, than anybody” and that “we’re going to be energy-dominant”.
To this end, Trump’s fossil fuel agenda also highlights the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other sensitive areas for potential drilling, aiming to boost U.S. oil and gas output. However, higher production costs—ranging between $64 and $70 per barrel for new wells—could limit profitability. Even with regulatory easing, these initiatives may take years to materialise fully.
While Trump’s policies may bring short-term economic benefits to fossil fuel sectors, the long-term implications for the U.S.’s role in clean energy leadership remain uncertain. With global markets increasingly embracing low-carbon technologies,
— By The Al-Attiyah Foundation
