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Satyendra Pathak
Doha
Qatar’s economy appears to have recovered somewhat in the third quarter after a likely sharp decline in the second quarter due to COVID-19 containment measures, low energy prices and plummeting visitor arrivals, FocusEconomics has said in its latest report.
According to FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast-Middle East & North Africa for October report, Qatar’s government progressively lifted lockdown restrictions in four stages from mid-June, and entered phase four on September 1.
As a result, the report said, economic activity has largely resumed, although capacity restrictions remain in place in stores and workplaces.
The easing of restrictions was reflected by a surge in the non-energy private sector PMI in July and August relative to the second quarter, the report said.
“Moreover, industrial output was up markedly in July on stronger energy production. However, the hospitality sector likely remained under pressure due to weak visitor arrivals,” the report said.
While the economy might shrink this year on the domestic lockdown, lower tourism and depressed energy prices, the output should rebound next year as the impact of the pandemic eases, the report said. FocusEconomics panellists see a 3.2 percent contraction in GDP in 2020, before the growth of 3 percent in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
The country’s economic growth will further accelerate to 3.8 percent in 2022 and 3.3 percent in 2023, the report said.
Consumer prices fell 4.1 percent in annual terms in August, down from July’s 3.4 percent drop, on lower prices for recreation and culture, transport and housing. Prices are seen declining over 2020 as a whole before rising next year as activity recovers, the report said.
“The possible implementation of VAT in 2021 is an upside risk. Our panellists see consumer prices falling 1.8 percent in 2020. In 2021, our panel sees inflation averaging 1.2 percent, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast,” the report said.
The report has also indicated that the GDP per capita in Qatar will also increase from $58,649 in 2020 to $74,550 in 2024.
According to the annual data released as part of the report, the overnight lending rate in the country would continue to rise from the current level of 2.5 percent and reach up to 3.31percent by 2024.
The Qatari riyal will continue to be pegged at $3.64 in the years to come, the report said.
The country would witness a sustained increase in both imports and exports in the coming years. While the merchandise exports from the country is expected to rise from $55.5 billion in 2020 to $76 billion in 2024, the report said, merchandise imports would increase from $29.2 billion in 2020 to $36.3 billion in 2024.
FocusEconomics, a leading provider of economic analysis, has also forecast that Qatar’s trade balance would rise from $26.2 billion in 2020 to $39.7 billion in 2024.
The report has projected that Qatar’s current account balance will account for 1.8 percent of the total GDP in 2024.
Qatar’s current account balance might turn negative in 2020 and 2021, the report said, it will be in the positive territory in 2022 and onwards.
Doha
Qatar’s economy appears to have recovered somewhat in the third quarter after a likely sharp decline in the second quarter due to COVID-19 containment measures, low energy prices and plummeting visitor arrivals, FocusEconomics has said in its latest report.
According to FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast-Middle East & North Africa for October report, Qatar’s government progressively lifted lockdown restrictions in four stages from mid-June, and entered phase four on September 1.
As a result, the report said, economic activity has largely resumed, although capacity restrictions remain in place in stores and workplaces.
The easing of restrictions was reflected by a surge in the non-energy private sector PMI in July and August relative to the second quarter, the report said.
“Moreover, industrial output was up markedly in July on stronger energy production. However, the hospitality sector likely remained under pressure due to weak visitor arrivals,” the report said.
While the economy might shrink this year on the domestic lockdown, lower tourism and depressed energy prices, the output should rebound next year as the impact of the pandemic eases, the report said. FocusEconomics panellists see a 3.2 percent contraction in GDP in 2020, before the growth of 3 percent in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
The country’s economic growth will further accelerate to 3.8 percent in 2022 and 3.3 percent in 2023, the report said.
Consumer prices fell 4.1 percent in annual terms in August, down from July’s 3.4 percent drop, on lower prices for recreation and culture, transport and housing. Prices are seen declining over 2020 as a whole before rising next year as activity recovers, the report said.
“The possible implementation of VAT in 2021 is an upside risk. Our panellists see consumer prices falling 1.8 percent in 2020. In 2021, our panel sees inflation averaging 1.2 percent, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast,” the report said.
The report has also indicated that the GDP per capita in Qatar will also increase from $58,649 in 2020 to $74,550 in 2024.
According to the annual data released as part of the report, the overnight lending rate in the country would continue to rise from the current level of 2.5 percent and reach up to 3.31percent by 2024.
The Qatari riyal will continue to be pegged at $3.64 in the years to come, the report said.
The country would witness a sustained increase in both imports and exports in the coming years. While the merchandise exports from the country is expected to rise from $55.5 billion in 2020 to $76 billion in 2024, the report said, merchandise imports would increase from $29.2 billion in 2020 to $36.3 billion in 2024.
FocusEconomics, a leading provider of economic analysis, has also forecast that Qatar’s trade balance would rise from $26.2 billion in 2020 to $39.7 billion in 2024.
The report has projected that Qatar’s current account balance will account for 1.8 percent of the total GDP in 2024.
Qatar’s current account balance might turn negative in 2020 and 2021, the report said, it will be in the positive territory in 2022 and onwards.
