Qatar’s GDP growth should accelerate this year due to stronger private consumption, higher energy prices, ongoing gas sector investment, improved ties with Gulf neighbours and the boost to tourism late in the year from the FIFA World Cup, FocusEconomics has said in a report released recently.FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.3 percent rise in Qatar’s GDP during 2022 and 2.8 percent growth in 2023.According to the report, the non-energy economy appeared to perform well in the first quarter of this year. The private-sector PMI averaged well in expansionary territory amid the reduced impact of the pandemic, while visitor arrivals soared in annual terms, it said.However, the report said, the energy sector seemed to perform relatively poorly with a double-digit annual decline in oil and gas output during February.The early signs for the second quarter of this year are positive as the PMI hit a series high in April amid strong rises in both output and new orders with the construction sector being the top performer.Moreover, the report said, visitor arrivals were up 635 percent year-on-year in April. In other economic development, Qatar recently signed an energy partnership with Germany and pledged investment worth a total of roughly $18 billion in Spain and the UK. These moves bode well for Qatar’s trade ties and diversification efforts, the report said.As per the report, Qatar’s inflation rose from 4.4 percent to 4.7 percent between March and April.“Price pressures are expected to remain elevated for the remainder of the year, on elevated commodity prices and stronger domestic consumption. The possible introduction of VAT remains an upside risk, although this appears increasingly likely to be delayed amid elevated inflation and booming energy prices,” the report said.FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 4 percent in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.4 percent in 2023. The report has also indicated that the GDP per capita in Qatar will also increase from $79,881 in 2022 to $101,124 in 2026.According to the annual data released as part of the report, the country would witness a sustained increase in both imports and exports in the coming years. While the merchandise exports from the country are expected to rise from $110.8 billion in 2022 to $128.5 billion in 2026, the report said, merchandise imports would increase from $31.3 billion in 2022 to $41.6 billion in 2026.FocusEconomics, a leading provider of economic analysis, has also forecast that Qatar’s trade balance would rise from $79.5 billion in 2022 to $87 billion in 2025.The report has projected that Qatar’s current account balance will account for 5.4 percent of the total GDP in 2021. The percentage of the current account balance would rise to 7.5 percent in 2025, the report said. Qatar’s current account balance is expected to turn positive and reach $5.4 billion in 2021, the report said, adding that it will continue to remain in the positive territory for the next four years and reach $15.5 billion in 2025.
