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AARON CARROLL and AUSTIN FRAKT
NYT Syndicate
The New York Times created a tournament to judge which of these nations has the best health system: Canada, Britain, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, France, Australia and the US.
This is often accompanied by calls to match the health care coverage of"the rest of the world." But this overlooks a crucial fact: The"rest of the world" is not all alike.
The commonality is universal coverage, but wealthy nations have taken varying approaches to it, some relying heavily on the government (as with single-payer); some relying more on private insurers; others in between.
Experts don't agree on which is best; a lot depends on perspective. But the Times thought it would be fun to stage a small tournament.
The Times selected eight countries, representing a range of health care systems, and established a bracket by randomly assigning seeds.
To select the winner of each matchup, The Times gathered a small judging panel, which includes: Aaron Carroll, a health services researcher and professor of paediatrics at Indiana University School of Medicine; Austin Frakt, director of the Partnered Evidence-Based Policy Resource Center at the VA Boston Healthcare System, associate professor with Boston University's School of Public Health, and adjunct associate professor with the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health; and three economists and physician experts in health care systems: Craig Garthwaite, a health economist with Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management; Uwe Reinhardt, a health economist with Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs; Ashish Jha, a physician with the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.
When hard data is cited, it comes from the Commonwealth Fund's International Country Comparison in 2017.
FIRST ROUND: Canada vs Britain: Single-Payer Showdown
Both have single-payer systems, but vary in the government's role and in what is covered.
In Canada, the government finances health insurance, and the private sector delivers a lot of the care. Insurance is run at the province level. Many Canadians have supplemental private insurance through their jobs to help pay for prescription drugs, dentists and optometry. The government ends up paying for about 70 percent of health care spending in all.
Britain has truly socialised medicine: The government not only finances care, but also provides it through the National Health Service. Coverage is broad, and most services are free to citizens, with the system financed by taxes, though there is a private system that runs alongside the public one. About 10 percent buy private insurance. Government spending accounts for more than 80 percent of all health care spending.
US analogues are Medicare (more like Canada) and the Veterans Health Administration (more like Britain).
Canada and Britain are pretty similar in terms of spending ” both spend just over 10 percent of GDP on health care. They also have reasonably similar results on quality, although neither ranks near the top in the usual international comparisons. In terms of access, though, Britain excels, with shorter wait times and fewer access barriers due to cost.
AARON: Britain. It's efficient. Given the rather low spending, it provides great access with acceptable outcomes.
CRAIG: Britain. Patients in Britain have a greater ability to shop across providers (using additional private insurance). This, combined with reforms within the NHS, helped increase competition and quality.
AUSTIN: Britain. While the countries are close in spending and quality, Britain has much lower cost-based barriers to access.
ASHISH: Britain. Access problems can be profound in Canada ” nearly 1 in 5 Canadians report waiting four months or more for elective surgery, which can be more than just an inconvenience.
UWE: Canada. The Canadian system is simpler for citizens to understand and highly equitable.
Our pick: Britain,
FIRST ROUND: US vs Singapore: A Mix of Ideas
The United States has a mix of clashing ideas: private insurance through employment; single-payer Medicare mainly for those 65 and older; state-managed Medicaid for many low-income people; private insurance through exchanges set up by the Affordable Care Act; as well as about 28 million people without any insurance at all. Hospitals are private, except for those run by the Veterans Health Administration.
Singapore has a unique approach. Basic care in government-run hospital wards is cheap, sometimes free, with more deluxe care in private rooms available for those paying extra. Singapore's workers contribute around 37 percent of their wages to mandated savings accounts that may be spent on health care, housing, insurance, investment or education, with part of that being an employer contribution. The government, which helps control costs, is involved in decisions about investing in new technology. It also uses bulk purchasing power to spend less on drugs, controls the number of medical students and physicians in the country, and helps decide how much they can earn.
Singapore's system costs far less than the United States' (4.9 percent of GDP versus 17.2 percent). Singapore doesn't release the same data as most other advanced nations, although it's widely thought that it provides pretty good care for a small amount of spending. Others counter that access and quality vary, with wide disparities between those at the top and bottom of the socioeconomic ladder.
AARON: United States. Singapore is intriguing, because it's so different from other systems. But its huge mandatory savings requirement would be a nonstarter for many in the United States.
CRAIG: United States. Singapore, a scrappy underdog, has become a fan favourite of conservatives. But its reliance on health savings accounts is problematic: When people are spending more of their own money on health care, they tend to forgo both effective and ineffective care in equal measure.
AUSTIN: United States. It's hard for me to overlook Singapore's lack of openness with data.
ASHISH: United States. The lack of data in Singapore is a problem, and it had higher rates of unnecessary hospitalisations and far higher heart attack and stroke mortality rates than the United States. Plus, the US has a highly dynamic and innovative health care system. It is the engine for new diagnostics and treatments from which Singapore and other nations benefit.
UWE: Singapore. It's hard to defend the messy American health system, with its mixture of unbridled compassion and unbridled cruelty.
Our pick: United States, 4-1
FIRST ROUND: France vs Australia: Everyone Covered
The list of services covered in France is more extensive than in Australia ” perhaps more than in any other health care system. Australia has the advantage in expense.
Australia provides free inpatient care in public hospitals, access to most medical services and prescription drugs. There is also voluntary private health insurance, giving access to private hospitals and to some services the public system does not cover.
The government pays for at least 85 percent of outpatient services, and for 75 percent of the medical fee schedule for private patients who use public hospitals. Patients must pay out of pocket for whatever isn't covered. Most doctors are self-employed, work in groups and are paid fee-for-service. More than half of hospitals are public.
Everyone in France must buy health insurance, sold by a small number of nonprofit funds, which are largely financed through taxes. Public insurance covers between 70 percent and 80 percent of costs. Voluntary health insurance can cover the rest, leaving out-of-pocket payments relatively low. About 95 percent of the population has voluntary coverage, through jobs or with the help of means-tested vouchers. The Ministry of Health sets funds and budgets; it also regulates the number of hospital beds, what equipment is purchased and how many medical students are trained. The ministry sets prices for procedures and drugs.
The French health system is relatively expensive at 11.8 percent of GDP, while Australia's is at 9 percent. Access and quality are excellent in both systems.
AARON: France. It provides almost everything you'd want, and it's expensive only compared with countries other than the United States. (Compared with the US, it's a bargain.)
CRAIG: France. It has seemingly done a better job of using markets to create competition across public and private hospitals ” which provides incentives for quality provision and innovation.
AUSTIN: Australia. It was a close call. Australia achieves good outcomes (by some but not all measures better than France) with a lot less spending, making it a better value.
ASHISH: France. Both countries cover everyone, but people in France report somewhat fewer problems getting access to care, as well as shorter waiting times.
UWE: France. The Australian system is basically two-tiered: a public insurance-and-delivery system, and another based on private health insurance, each of which cover roughly half the population. This seems to work well in Australia, but in the US the public system most likely would be badly underfunded. Therefore, France would be superior.
Our pick: France, 4-1
FIRST ROUND: Switzerland vs Germany: Neighbourly Rivalry
Germany's system and Switzerland's have a lot in common. Germany has slightly better access, especially with respect to costs. Switzerland has higher levels of cost-sharing, but its outcomes are hard to beat ” arguably the best in the world.
Like every country here except the US, Switzerland has a universal health care system, requiring all to buy insurance. The plans resemble those in the United States under the Affordable Care Act: offered by private insurance companies, community rated and guaranteed-issue, with prices varying by things like breadth of network, size of deductible and ease of seeing a specialist. Almost 30 percent of people get subsidies offsetting the cost of premiums, on a sliding scale pegged to income. Although these plans are offered on a nonprofit basis, insurers can also offer coverage on a for-profit basis, providing additional services and more choice in hospitals. For these voluntary plans, insurance companies may vary benefits and premiums; they also can deny coverage to people with chronic conditions. Most doctors work on a national fee-for-service scale, and patients have considerable choice of doctors, unless they've selected a managed-care plan.
A majority of Germans (86 percent) get their coverage primarily though the national public system, with others choosing voluntary private health insurance. Most premiums for the public system are based on income and paid for by employers and employees, with subsidies available but capped at earnings of about $65,000. Patients have a lot of choice among doctors and hospitals, and cost sharing is quite low. It's capped for low-income people, reduced for care of those with chronic illnesses, and nonexistent for services to children. There are no subsidies for private health insurance, but the government regulates premiums, which can be higher for people with pre-existing conditions. Private insurers charge premiums on an actuarial basis when they first enrol a customer, and subsequently raise premiums only as a function of age ” not health status. Most physicians work in a fee-for-service setting based on negotiated rates, and there are limits on what they can be paid annually.
Both systems cost their countries about 11 percent of GDP.
AARON: Switzerland. It has superior outcomes. It's worth noting that its system is very similar to the Obamacare exchanges.
CRAIG: Switzerland. The Swiss system looks a lot like a better-functioning version of the Affordable Care Act. There's heavy, but quite regulated, competition among insurers and an individual mandate.
AUSTIN: Germany. Germany has a low level of cost-based access barriers ” tied with Britain for the lowest among our competitors.
ASHISH: Switzerland. Switzerland outperformed Germany on a number of important quality measures, including fewer unnecessary hospitalisations and lower heart attack mortality rates.
UWE: Germany. The Swiss social insurance system ” a late comer, enacted only in the 1990s, and financed by per-capita premiums ” is less equitable than many other European systems, including Germany's.
Our pick: Switzerland, 3-2
SEMIFINALS: Switzerland vs Britain: Meaning of a Market
How does the cost-effectiveness of Britain's"socialised medicine" stack up against the competitive but heavily regulated private system of Switzerland?
AARON: Switzerland. It has better quality, and perhaps access, but those come at a higher cost. I'm willing to make that trade-off.
CRAIG: Britain. Switzerland's system ” privately funded with private insurers ” is often held up as a bastion of competition. But it is not necessarily more of a market than Britain; it just hides the heavy hand of government a bit more. In reality, the insurance and provider market is heavily regulated. The UK system is almost entirely publicly funded, but it has done a lot to try to increase the competition between facilities, which has increased the quality of service.
AUSTIN: Britain. It systematically incorporates cost effectiveness into coverage decisions.
ASHISH: Switzerland. These are two countries with high-performing health systems, but Switzerland has better access and quality, albeit at somewhat higher costs.
UWE: Switzerland. Switzerland has better facilities and speed of access to care.
Our pick: Switzerland, 3-2
SEMIFINALS: France vs US: Access vs Innovation
France has extensive coverage, with costs that are high relative to many other nations. The US system, praised as dynamic and innovative, is even more expensive, falls short of universal coverage and can be bewilderingly complex. Which do our experts prefer?
AARON: France. France provides an amazing level of access and quality for the cost. The US is considered the driver of health care innovation, which comes at a high price. But there are other ways to incentivize innovation in the private sector besides how we pay for and deliver care.
CRAIG: United States. The US system is a bit of a mess in that it is quite expensive and doesn't offer complete coverage to its populace. But the system really does have the strongest incentives for innovation on medical technology ” which provides an amazing amount of welfare for citizens around the globe.
AUSTIN: France. It's hard to justify the very high level of US spending based on innovation alone, particularly without mechanisms to steer innovation toward technologies that are cost-effective.
ASHISH: United States. France has a far more equitable system, with few delays and reasonably good outcomes. However, the US delivers a superior quality of care on the measures that matter most to patients, and the system is far more dynamic and innovative. It was close, but I picked the United States.
UWE: France. The US is just too expensive for what it delivers, and includes too much financial insecurity to boot. At international health care conferences, arguing that a certain proposed policy would drive some country's system closer to the US model usually is the kiss of death.
Our pick: France, 3-2
FINAL: France vs Switzerland: Top of the Mountain (Alps Edition)
France's system is impressively comprehensive and in some respects simpler. Switzerland relies on a competitive yet much-regulated system of private insurers. Which has the edge and why?
AARON: Switzerland. This is a tough call. Switzerland does a good job of combining conservative and progressive beliefs about health care systems into a workable model providing top-notch access and quality at a reasonable cost. It doesn't hurt that it does so through private (although heavily regulated) insurance.
CRAIG: France. Its system has more competition among providers than Switzerland's does.
AUSTIN: Switzerland. The Swiss system is so close to the ACA's structure (which, to date, has survived all manner of political attacks) that something like it could work in the US.
ASHISH: Switzerland. Both of these countries spend a lot on health care, outpacing the average among high-income countries, and both perform comparably on measures of access to care. However, in general, the Swiss health care system delivers a higher quality of care across a range of measures and invests more in innovation that fuels new knowledge and, ultimately, better treatments that we all benefit from.
UWE: France. It is cheaper, its financing is more equitable, and its system is simpler.
Our pick: Switzerland, 3-2
CONCLUSION
Germany would have tied Switzerland had we averaged our rankings of the nations instead of using head-to-head matchups in a bracket system (Switzerland eliminated Germany in the first round). It's an example of how close the voting was. Not one vote was unanimous among the judges, and all the semifinal and final votes were 3-2. Clearly, there is room for disagreement about the relative merits of health systems, and different experts would surely reach different conclusions.
Some judges took a global view, giving the edge to countries, like the United States, that promoted innovation that benefited the rest of the world. In other cases, how health systems treated the poorest of society was paramount.
